Bird flu is making a comeback after a surprisingly calm summer, catching many by surprise—and that’s just the beginning of the story. But here’s where it gets controversial: could this be a sign the virus is settling in for the long haul? And if so, what does that mean for us?
This past summer was unusually quiet when it came to bird flu. Egg prices dipped a bit, fewer poultry farms had to cull their birds, and officials finally got a moment to breathe easy. Shauna Voss, assistant director of the Minnesota Board of Animal Health, even described it as “lovely.” But don’t get too comfortable—this respite didn’t last.
With the arrival of autumn, migratory waterfowl like geese, ducks, and cranes have started their seasonal journeys, gathering at lakes and ponds and passing viruses along the way. This has resulted in a sharp rise in bird flu cases much earlier than experts had anticipated. Over four million poultry birds have been culled in just the past month across states such as Minnesota and Iowa after testing positive for the H5N1 virus. The surge in cases among poultry closely mirrors the increase seen in wild bird populations in northern regions.
Many state officials are now bracing for a difficult fall, knowing this season has historically brought spikes in outbreaks. “Last week, we confirmed our first positive case,” shared Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig, referring to a turkey farm in Calhoun County. “The big question is how widespread this will become and what kind of fall we’re heading into.” However, when it comes to predicting the impact on egg prices, the answer remains uncertain. “Honestly, we’ll just have to wait and see,” Naig explained. “I wish I could provide more insight.”
This is actually the fourth consecutive autumn showing an uptick in bird flu infections, a clear indication the virus might be becoming endemic in wild birds. If this pattern continues, it could mean a persistent threat to poultry industries nationwide. Voss warns, “It’s not disappearing anytime soon—this virus seems firmly entrenched.”
An unsettling consequence of the virus circulating widely is the potential for it to mutate in ways that make human infections easier. Some experts have voiced concerns that past cuts by the Trump administration to mRNA research funding might hinder rapid vaccine development if a human-adapted strain emerges. Thankfully, as of now, the risk to people remains low.
Throughout the fall, scientists, wildlife experts, and officials are keeping a close watch, unsure what lies ahead. Declan Schroeder, an associate professor of virology at the University of Minnesota, captures the collective sentiment well: “It’s an intense moment. Everyone’s waiting anxiously to see what unfolds.”
The bird flu virus first appeared in a commercial poultry flock in the U.S. back in February 2022, although it had been circulating among wild birds before that. Almost invariably lethal to poultry, bird flu has led to the culling of over 175 million birds since then. A surprising and worrying development two years ago was the discovery that the virus had infected dairy cows and was present in raw, unpasteurized milk—resulting in new farm protocols and milk screening measures.
At least 70 human infections have been recorded, predominantly among farmworkers who have close contact with infected birds or cows, with one fatality reported. Experts believe wild birds transmit the virus to poultry in various ways, including direct contact, contaminating poultry feed, or farmworkers inadvertently bringing the virus into barns on contaminated clothing or equipment. Migration season amplifies these risks by increasing interactions among wild birds.
Michael Ward, a professor at the University of Illinois who studies migration and natural resources, explains, “If even one infected bird travels through an area and infects others, the virus can spread rapidly.” He points to shrinking wetland habitats in places like Illinois, due to drought, as forcing birds into tighter spaces where disease transmission is more likely. “It’s a perfect storm for the virus to spread,” Ward says.
In response, the U.S. Department of Agriculture highlighted a comprehensive five-part plan launched in February to combat avian flu. This includes a $100 million investment in researching new biosecurity approaches and developing poultry vaccines. While countries such as France have begun vaccinating their poultry, the USDA is still evaluating whether to adopt this approach in the U.S. A major concern is that vaccination could affect poultry exports, complicating the decision.
Mike Naig from Iowa emphasizes, “We believe an effective vaccine strategy could be a game-changer for egg and turkey producers, but it must be rolled out carefully to avoid disrupting export markets.” The USDA continues to work on this strategy as farmers and officials await clear guidance.
Scientists have long feared that bird flu could evolve to spread easily between humans. Even though the current risk remains low, infectious disease experts like Dr. Peter Chin-Hong at the University of California, San Francisco recommend simple precautions: get your seasonal flu vaccine, avoid raw milk and unpasteurized cheeses during outbreaks, and keep cats indoors during migratory bird season to reduce the risk of transmission.
A particularly dangerous scenario would be a person contracting both the H5N1 bird flu and the seasonal flu simultaneously, potentially allowing the viruses to exchange genetic material and become more adapted to humans.
Controversially, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stopped their coordination calls with health providers regarding H5N1 earlier this year—a move that experts like Chin-Hong criticize, hoping these calls will resume. He also disagrees with the Trump-era decision to cut funding for mRNA vaccine research. Moderna was advancing an mRNA-based bird flu vaccine before the Department of Health and Human Services canceled their funding support.
The CDC has not responded publicly about these concerns.
So here’s the crucial question for readers: With this virus seemingly entrenched in wild bird populations and recurring yearly, should the U.S. reconsider adopting poultry vaccination despite export concerns? And how can we better prepare for the remote—but potentially devastating—possibility of a human-adapted bird flu strain? Share your thoughts below—are these government actions enough, or are we underestimating the threat?
